E3 is About Games and the Future of Entertainment
by By Timothy Everingham, NOCCC, teveringham@acm.org - July 01, 2003 at 18:50:18:
Each year the computer games companies gather at the Los Angeles Convention Center for the world's largest computer games show in the world: Electronic Entertainment Expo, commonly known as E3. This name mirrors recent trends because computer games are one of the fastest growing areas in both the entertainment and technology industries. The annual revenue of the computer game industry is now larger than that of movie theaters box office and is moving toward eclipsing VHS/DVD movie revenue. During the Internet boom there was talk about declining TV viewership from people shifting there time away from the TV to the net. That was somewhat true, but the long-term threat to TV viewership looks more like from computer games than the Internet. Both Sony and Microsoft have gotten the vision that a game console should be looked at as part of home entertainment in general. At one time computer games were thought to be for kids and college age people. However, recent studies have shown that the correlation to whether a person will play computer games is highly related to whether someone was exposed to computers in their 20s or earlier. The general population only began to be exposed to computers in the early 80's, which gave the impression that computer games were only for those under 30 during the early 90's. However, as the first generation (which became computer literate in their 20s) aged they kept on playing computer games and the average age of computer games players is now the late 30s to early 40s. It is now clear that as the first generation that became computer literate when they were young will continue to play computer games; therefore, computer game use will become prevalent in all age groups in the population in the next 20 years. The game console is the dominant type of platform in computer gaming. Console games outsell PC games three to one. There are three dominate makers of game consoles: Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. As stated earlier, Sony and Microsoft both have the vision of their consoles as part of a larger vision of the future of entertainment. Both can play DVD movies (Microsoft requires a $30 option). Sony's Playstation 2 is an older design than the other two consoles (introduced October 2000), but did allow some flexibility that allows you to add a hard drive and a modem/Ethernet module. Since it has been out longer, developers have had more time to work on and find ways to get the most of the Playstation 2. As a result, there are more games out for Sony's console and many of its games surpass in quality the games for the newer consoles. Microsoft's XBox is the most forward thinking console out there. It comes standard with a hard drive and Ethernet port; so was designed to be able to run more complex games, connect to the Internet via broadband, and connect with other devices in the home that are Ethernet enabled (many home electronics manufactures are planning to include Ethernet ports in their products and some already have). It is also newer than the Sony's offering, being introduced last November. Game developers have had less time to develop games for the XBox and to discover the best ways to exploit the strengths, so there are not as many games and they generally do not show fully what the XBox is capable of. That should change this fall. Both Microsoft and Sony expect that people will eventually consider their consoles just like any other home entertainment device and group them with TVs, stereos, and home theaters in their customer's minds. They also look at games that are played online with these consoles. That may take the form of just playing against a remote computer, head to head play with distant players (1-4 players), or playing in massive multiplayer worlds where large numbers of players will be playing together or in groups. At last year's E3, Nintendo expressed that they designed their GameCube as a stand-alone device. They said that game players were just interested in getting a console that could play good games and only play other players in the same room, stating that significant online console games was too far away for them to consider it in their console design. They also made their disk player proprietary, so it cannot play DVDs. They seemed to have reversed course since then with the addition of a modem model and with one online title and, at least in Japan, having a model that can play DVDs. For this and other reasons Nintendo may be vulnerable, so look to Sony and Microsoft to take advantage of this. PC gaming is alive and well and growing. One of the reasons why is that PCs are capable of doing more things and are more easily upgradeable. Also the high-end consumer PCs of today are faster than any of the consoles out there and there are games out there and coming soon that can take advantage of their capabilities. They also have been online for over 20 years. The upcoming Doom III can produce twice the graphics resolution/frames per second than the top PCs produced now. PCs also are better in simulation, strategy, and real-time strategy games. It is also where online gaming is today with such tiles as Quake III, Everquest, and Ultima Online. It is where the best selling game of all time is; The Sims, the only large selling game where the majority of the players are women. One of the things that seems to have happened is that women in large numbers have had such a good experience with The Sims that they are now starting to buy other games too. This trend is expected to cause computer gaming to become not totally dominated by male gamers anymore. One of these titles contributing to this may become the upcoming online massively multiplayer game, Star Wars Galaxies from Lucas Arts and Sony Online Entertainment. Of course one of the most anticipated online games is The Sims Online and it looks great. One of the strengths of a PC is to be able to control a large number of objects or units. It is a marvel to see two massive armies marching toward each other on a PC, both numbering in the thousands (GSC Game World's American Conquest can do 16,000 units). So, look forward to some exciting new games coming to a PC near you. Computer games will become part of a home's entire entertainment package, not something that is thought of as separate, and cover all age groups. Online gaming will expand to become a major entertainment force. In the future, game consoles may be able to talk with other devices in your home, especially home entertainment devices. Consoles have the majority share, but PCs will still be part of the gaming world because of their strengths and flexibility. So expect computer games to become part of your world if it isn't already. The lunch discussions of TV shows may be partially replaced by discussions of peoples' recent computer gaming experiences. Timothy Everingham He is CEO of Timothy Everingham Consulting in Azusa, California. He is a member of North Orange County Computer Club. Further information can be found at http://home.earthlink.net/~teveringham
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