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CAI
by John Willner, willner@earthlink.net - December 18, 2000 at 18:38:00:
Forecast—Last month our members were wrong for one of the few times in the year 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 444.41 points in one month to 10,817.95 on November 3, whereas the majority had voted for the market to go up. The new vote for the DJIA to rise more than 100 points by December 31 was eight. The vote for it to go down more than 100 points was four. The vote for a finish within plus or minus 100 points was two. We obviously had limited participation.Presentation—Rob Thatcher, present leader of mutual fund presentations at West Coast Cycles Club meetings, gave us an excellent talk on how he selects mutual funds to buy and to sell using DOS versions of FastTrak and FastTools. Mutual funds can be ranked in a number of ways, including ratio adjusted relative strength numbers for each fund versus groups of small funds, medium funds, large funds, the NDX, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, etc. He looks especially at his own derived signals compared with MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and a measure of down volatility. Special interest has been held in using reduced drawdown funds for selected periods of time that outperform buy and hold strategies. The Legg Mason Value Fund was cited as one example. The combination of FastTrak with FastTools permits many sophisticated calculations to be made and displayed. They are constantly being reviewed and updated by an active user group. Cost for FastTrak is about $300 per year. One time cost of Fast Tools is about the same. Trial copies are available upon request.
Elections—Being the first of the year the CAI SIG should consider voting for new officers. Also, for quite a long while we really haven’t had a badly needed secretary to record minutes and send them in by e-mail. Being a volunteer provides a real service to other members.
Speaker for January—Kevin Hight, Director of Business Development of Metzler Payden, who is the in the Los Angeles office has agreed to give us a talk on their bottom up approach to investing.
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